Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville: Florida Markets Compared

Miami gets the headlines. But a lot of our Florida deal conversations now start somewhere else: Tampa, Orlando or Jacksonville.

These are not one market. Prices, rents and resale speed are moving in different directions in each. So the best plan, and the best loan, changes too.

We covered Miami in our Miami fix and flip breakdown. This post looks at the other three the same way. Every figure below has a source and a date.

The numbers side by side

Start with the metro single-family medians from Florida Realtors' August 2026 report, which came out September 16. We read them in two summaries, listed in the last column.

Supply matters as much as price. Bright Florida Homes' September 2026 summary of the same report puts statewide supply at 4.3 months for single-family homes and 7.7 months for condos and townhouses.

Metro medians hide what's happening inside each city. City-level sales over the last 12 months look different, according to Momentum Realty's market pages, updated in mid-October 2026:

Look at Jacksonville. The city median is more than $90,000 below the metro figure. A headline median won't tell you what your house will appraise for. Comps will.

Rents round out the picture:

Zumper counts rents differently from Apartment List, so don't compare the Tampa row directly with the other two. For a like-for-like read, Apartment List's Jacksonville report, published October 8, 2026, says Tampa and Orlando both rent for roughly $200 a month more than Jacksonville.

Tampa: the discount is on the buy side

Tampa sellers are pricing too high and then cutting. Tampa Bay Business & Wealth, writing on September 30, 2026 with Realtor.com's September data, reported that the metro median listing price fell 6.6% year over year to $385,398. The same report found 27.5% of listings had a price cut, even though active inventory fell 3.8%.

Closed sales tell a calmer story. Redfin's Tampa page shows a city median sale price of $450K for the three months ending September 2026, up 4.9% from a year earlier. The same Redfin data shows homes taking 60 days to sell, up from 45 days last year.

Put those together. Asking prices are dropping toward where homes actually sell. That isn't a crash. It's an opening for anyone who can close quickly with a clean offer.

The exit is where you plan the deal. Momentum Realty's Tampa page (October 2026) shows the $300K–$500K band at 2.9 months of supply and 37 days to contract. Under $300K, supply is 4.5 months and homes take 51 days. A flip that resells in the middle band has the deepest pool of buyers.

Next door, Pinellas is tighter. Truvera Title's fall 2026 Pinellas update reports a single-family median of $464,950 in August, up 6.9%, with active single-family listings down 18.5%.

Tampa approach: buy from sellers who are cutting price. Renovate for the $300K–$500K resale band. Base ARV on closed sales, never list prices. Our guide on how to calculate ARV walks through it. Then budget for 60 days on market, not 30. Holding costs are where a longer sale eats your margin.

Orlando: highest price, flattest line

Orlando has the highest metro median of the three, and it isn't climbing. Norada Real Estate, writing in October 2026, said the Orlando metro's August single-family median came in at $439,000, down 0.6%, on 2,445 sales, up 1.5%.

Inside the city, the market looks balanced. Sean Spencer and Barbara Vance of Premier Sotheby's International Realty, publishing on October 4, 2026, reported a September single-family median of $442,500 with 3.80 months of supply. Sellers got a median 98.1% of their last list price.

Rents are softening. Apartment List's Orlando guide, published September 17, 2026, has rents down 1.53% year over year, about twice as fast as the national median is falling.

Orlando approach: don't count on rising prices to bail out a deal. Flip profit has to come from the purchase price and a tight scope of work. For rentals, use today's rent, not last year's lease, and run the ratio before you offer. Our DSCR calculation guide shows the math. Be careful with condos: with 7.7 months of statewide condo supply, an attached unit is a different deal. Read up on Florida condo milestone and SIRS rules first.

Jacksonville: lowest entry price, rents just turned

Jacksonville is the cheapest way in. Momentum Realty's Jacksonville page, updated October 14, 2026, shows a city median of $313,650, down 1.3%, with homes going under contract in about 43 days. At the metro level, Bright Florida Homes' September 2026 summary reports a $405,000 median, up 1.3%, on 1,787 sales.

The rent trend is the part to watch. Apartment List's October 8, 2026 report says Jacksonville rents turned up in August 2026. Before that, they had fallen year over year every month since April 2023. The gain is small: 0.68% over the 12 months through September, with two-bedrooms at $1,306.

One small uptick is not a boom. But low purchase prices plus rents that have stopped falling is where rental math starts to work.

Jacksonville approach: buy-and-hold first. Base the loan on current leases. Look at build-to-rent if you build. Our build-to-rent guide covers the path from construction loan to DSCR loan. If you're rehabbing to rent, see how to refinance a hard money loan into DSCR.

Which loan fits which market

Here's how our programs line up with each approach:

• Tampa flips: Fix & Flip from 8.75%. That's a starting rate, not a quote.
• Jacksonville and Orlando rentals: DSCR from 6.75%.
• Ground-up in any of the three: Ground-Up from 8.75%. We lend 85% of full cost as standard. Full cost is purchase price plus sunk costs plus the remaining construction budget. Builders with 20 or more completed ground-up builds get 90%. On top of either, a further 5% of cost finances the interest reserve. So an experienced builder reaches 95% all-in, with the reserve financed. The reserve pays interest only, never construction. After-repair loan-to-value is a second cap, and the lower number applies. Our ground-up leverage breakdown runs through the math.
• Credit: most programs start at 660. The best tiers start at 680. Scores from 640 to 659 are reviewed case by case.
• Coverage and speed: we lend in 45 states, Florida included. The five we exclude are VT, UT, OR, SD and ND. We close in 5-10 business days, depending on the deal.

Terms are subject to underwriting, appraisal, title, and insurance.

For a wider look at lending across the state, see our Florida hard money guide.

Five checks before you offer

1. Base ARV on closed sales. In Tampa, asking prices are falling faster than sale prices. Comps built on list prices will mislead you.
2. Check supply in your price band. Metro-wide months of supply hides the bands where homes sit.
3. Use today's rent. Orlando and Tampa rents are down year over year. Jacksonville's increase is under 1%.
4. Budget for days on market. Tampa's 60-day average sale time belongs in your holding-cost line.
5. Get an insurance quote before you sign. In Florida, insurance can change the deal. Check our investment property insurance requirements first.

Run the deal

Got a Tampa flip, an Orlando rental or a Jacksonville build? Run it through the calculator first, or see the details on our fix and flip, DSCR and new construction program pages.

Ready to move? Apply Now or call (305) 857-5620.