Which Rate Moves Actually Reach Your Loan

The Fed raised rates on September 16. For a week afterward, investors asked us one question: does my rate go up?

It depends on which rate, which loan, and when you lock. Fed moves, SOFR moves and Treasury moves reach investor loans through different pipes. Some land overnight. Some take months. Some never touch a loan you've already closed.

Here's how each one travels, with numbers as of mid-October 2026.

The benchmarks this week

According to the Federal Reserve's statement published September 16, 2026, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%. Fox Business reported the same day that it was the first hike since July 2023, after five straight meetings on hold this year.

Prime moved the next morning. Bank of America's prime rate page, updated September 17, 2026, lists its prime at 7.00%, effective that day.

SOFR moves overnight

SOFR is the cost of borrowing cash overnight against Treasuries. It followed the Fed almost to the day. MarketXLS's SOFR history, with data through October 1, 2026, shows 3.62% on September 16 and 3.85% on September 17. FRED's series, built from New York Fed data and updated October 15, 2026, puts it at 3.88% on October 14.

Who feels that? Anyone whose note floats. Floating-rate bridge debt on larger value-add apartment deals is usually written as SOFR plus a margin. If SOFR rises 0.25%, the coupon rises 0.25% at the next reset. On a $3,000,000 balance, that's $7,500 a year.

On floating debt, size the rate cap and the interest reserve for where rates could go, not for today's print. Our multifamily bridge guide walks through the value-add timeline.

Short-term fixed notes: the spread is most of the rate

Most fix and flip and ground-up loans are short fixed-rate notes. Once you close, a Fed hike doesn't change your coupon. The rate on the note is the rate on the note.

New loans are different. A private lender's posted rate sits on top of its own cost of money, and that cost tends to follow short-term rates. Look at the size of the gap, though. Our Fix & Flip program starts from 8.75%. Overnight SOFR was 3.88% on October 14, per FRED. That's a gap of nearly 4.9 points. A 0.25% move in SOFR is under 3% of an 8.75% coupon.

Here's the math on a $400,000, 12-month flip loan. Each 0.25% costs $1,000 a year, about $83 a month. Put that next to your monthly taxes, insurance and utilities. Our holding costs breakdown shows where the real carry sits.

Your own file moves your rate more than the Fed does. Most of our programs need 660+ credit, the best pricing tiers start at 680+, and 640–659 is case-by-case. Leverage, rehab scope and your track record all show up in pricing. Here's how underwriters count completed deals. Treat a posted rate as a starting point. The term sheet on your actual deal is the number that counts.

DSCR: watch the 10-year, not the Fed

Thirty-year rental loans are sold or securitized in the capital markets. That's why they track longer Treasury yields more closely than the overnight rate. Longer yields have moved on their own schedule this year.

The 10-year was 5.19% on October 14, per FRED. Macrotrends' history, updated October 13, 2026, shows it up 1.16 points from 4.05% a year earlier. In a Yahoo Finance piece published October 10, 2026, Motley Fool noted it reached 5.36% on October 7, the highest level since 2002.

Look at the order of events. The Fed moved a quarter point. The 10-year moved more than a full point over twelve months. If you're waiting for the Fed to tell you where DSCR rates are going, you're watching the wrong screen.

Our DSCR program starts from 6.75%. The bigger risk is on the exit. When you refinance a flip or a BRRRR into a rental loan, the rate sets how much the rent can carry.

Illustrative example. Rent is $2,500 a month. Taxes, insurance and HOA take $500, leaving $2,000 for principal and interest at a 1.00 coverage ratio. On a 30-year amortization, that supports about $300,600 at 7.00%. At 7.50%, it supports about $286,000. Half a point costs roughly $14,600 in loan proceeds, and that's cash you either leave in the deal or never pull out.

Run your takeout at today's rates plus a cushion. Then read how to calculate DSCR and refinancing hard money into DSCR before you commit to the exit. Prepayment structure matters too. See DSCR prepayment penalties.

Construction: the rate lands in the interest reserve

Ground-up leverage has three parts. Standard leverage is 85% of full cost: purchase price, plus sunk costs, plus the remaining construction budget. Builders with 20 or more completed ground-up builds get 90%. A further 5% of cost, on top of either number, finances the interest reserve. That's how an experienced builder reaches 95% all-in with the reserve financed. After-repair loan-to-value is a second cap, and the lower of the two governs.

Ground-Up starts from 8.75%. Here's how a rate move compares with a schedule slip.

Illustrative example. On $1,000,000 drawn, each 0.25% adds $2,500 a year. Three extra months at 8.75% on the same balance adds about $21,875. The build schedule usually matters more than the benchmark. Size the reserve for the build you'll actually run. Our interest reserve guide shows how to size it.

What does not reach your loan

A hike after you close a fixed note. Your coupon stays put. Extensions and refinances are where market rates can catch up with you, so read the extension terms well before maturity. See extensions, maturity and default.

One day of Treasury noise. Trading Economics reported the 10-year eased 0.11 points to 5.08% on October 15, 2026. A single session doesn't reprice a bridge loan. The trend does, and so does the day you lock.

The headline mortgage average. According to Freddie Mac's survey released October 15, 2026, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%. StockTitan's write-up of that release notes the survey covers conventional, conforming purchase loans with 20% down and excellent credit. That's not an investor product, and it's not your quote.

The Fed's forecast. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, writing September 17, 2026, said the median Fed official expects the policy rate to end 2026 at 4.1%. PrimeRates.com lists the next FOMC meeting as October 27–28, 2026. A forecast isn't a rate until it happens. For DSCR, the bond market has largely priced the expected move into longer yields already.

What to do this quarter

1. Know whether your debt is fixed or floating. Floating means SOFR reaches you at every reset.
2. Stress-test the exit. Re-run your DSCR takeout with a half-point cushion on the calculator.
3. Build the reserve on a realistic schedule. Time costs more than a quarter-point.
4. Price the deal, not the headline. Get a term sheet on the actual property. Compare current hard money rates with what the file supports.

We lend in 45 states. The excluded states are VT, UT, OR, SD and ND. Typical closings take 5-10 business days, depending on the deal. Programs: Fix & Flip, DSCR, New Construction.

Terms are subject to underwriting, appraisal, title, and insurance.

Get a number on your deal

Headlines won't price your loan. A term sheet will. Apply Now or call (305) 857-5620.